文献类型：会议论文

英文题名：Research on precipitation prediction based on time series model

作者：Chang, Qing[1]; Zhao, Xiaoli[1]; Zhang, Kun[1]

第一作者：常青

通讯作者：Chang, Q.|[1107141071016]常青;

机构：[1] College of Computer and Engineering, Xinxiang University, Xinxiang, China

第一机构：新乡学院计算机与信息工程学院

通讯机构：[1]College of Computer and Engineering, Xinxiang University, Xinxiang, China|[1107118]新乡学院计算机与信息工程学院;[11071]新乡学院;

会议论文集：Proceedings - 2012 International Conference on Computer Distributed Control and Intelligent Environmental Monitoring, CDCIEM 2012

会议日期：March 5, 2012 - March 6, 2012

会议地点：Zhangjiajie, Hunan, China

语种：英文

外文关键词：Drought - Flood control - Floods - Time series - Weather forecasting

摘要：It should improve the forecasting accuracy in the study of precipitation prediction. It is difficultly to predict climate because of the dynamic characteristics of sample set as well as the effect of environmental factors. In order to improve the accuracy, a novel model based on time series and environmental factors was introduced in this paper. Firstly, the environmental factors were nonlinear screened by support vector machine (SVM). Secondly, estimated the order by controlled autoregressive (CAR). Lastly, reliability of SVM-CAR was validated by one-step prediction method. The simulation result of drought forecasting showed that this method has the advantages of high-precision and has a good prospect in drought and flood forecasting. ? 2012 IEEE.